The future rarely follows the one plan in the deck

Strategic scenarios are not financial model scenarios

Written by Mikael Gummerus, founder of AffinityAI and a software entrepreneur with 20 years of experience building and leading companies.

Financial scenario modeling usually changes numerical assumptions to compare projected outcomes such as revenue, cash flow or runway. Strategic scenario planning explores several plausible ways the business environment or an important decision could develop, including the signals, assumptions, unknowns and possible responses behind each path.

The two approaches complement each other: strategic scenarios help a team decide which futures deserve attention, while financial models help quantify their possible effects.